Forex Economic Calendar Overview: Key Events for the Next Trading Week (30.06.2025–06.07.2025)
Following the June Fed meeting, market participants are now looking for fresh data to assess the outlook for US monetary policy. This week’s PMI figures from ISM and labor market reports are expected to provide that insight.
Additionally, in the upcoming week of 30.06.2025–06.07.2025, market participants will focus on the release of crucial macroeconomic statistics from China, Germany, Japan, the Eurozone, the US, Switzerland, and Australia.
Notably, the upcoming week will be shorter than usual as US banks and stock exchanges will be closed on Friday due to Independence Day celebrations. Therefore, trading volumes are expected to be lower than usual. The release of the US June labor market data will be rescheduled for Thursday.
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Monday: Chinese PMIs, German retail sales and CPIs, Japanese Tankan index.
- Tuesday: Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI, Eurozone CPIs, US manufacturing PMI from ISM.
- Wednesday: Australian retail sales, the ADP report.
- Thursday: Australian trade balance, Swiss CPIs, US June labor market data release, US services PMI from ISM.
- Friday: No important macroeconomic statistics are scheduled, as it is a day off in the US.
- Key event of the week: publication of the US June labor market data on Thursday.
Monday, June 30
01:30 – CNY: China’s Manufacturing and Services PMI by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP)
This indicator is an essential gauge of the overall Chinese economy. An indicator reading above 50 is positive for the yuan, while a value below 50 is negative for the currency.
Previous values: 49.5, 50.5, 50.2, 49.1 in January 2025, 50.1 (December 2024), 50.3, 50.1, 49.8, 49.1, 49.4, 49.5, 50.4, 50.8, 49.2, 49.0, 49.5, 50.2, 49.3, 49.0, 48.8, 49.2, 51.9, 52.6, 50.1 in January. The relative rise in the index above 50 strengthens the yuan. Data above 50 indicates increased economic activity, positively affecting the national currency. Conversely, if the index value is below 50, the yuan will face pressure and probably decline.
Likewise, the services sector PMI assesses the state of the services sector in the Chinese economy. An indicator result above 50 is seen as positive for the yuan. Previous values: 50.3, 50.8, 50.4, 50.2 in January 2025, 52.2 in December 2024, 50.0, 50.2, 50.0, 50.3, 50.2, 50.5, 51.2, 53.0, 50.7, 50.4, 50.6, 51.7, 51.5, 53.2, 54.5, 56.4, 58.2, 56.3, 54.4 in January. Despite the relative decline, the indicator is still above the 50 value, likely influencing the yuan positively. Conversely, the indicator below 50 suggests that the yuan will face pressure and probably decline.
06:00 – EUR: German Retail Sales
Retail sales are the main indicator of consumer spending in Germany. A high indicator reading boosts the euro, while a low one weakens the currency.
Previous values: -1.1% (+2.3% YoY), -0.2% (+2.2% YoY), +0.8% (+4.9% YoY), +0.2% (+2.9% YoY), -1.6% (+1.8 YoY) in January 2025, -0.6% (+2.5% YoY), -1,5% (+1,0% YoY), +1.2% (+3.8% YoY), +1.6 (+2.1% YoY), -1.2% (-0.6% YoY), +2.6% (-1.9% YoY), -1.5% (+2.2% YoY), -0.3% (-.2% YoY) in January 2024.
The data suggests that the German economy’s recovery has been uneven, with some months experiencing a slowdown. Indicator readings higher than forecasted and/or previous values are likely positive for the euro in the short term.
12:00 – EUR: German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (Preliminary Estimate)
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is published by the European Statistics and is calculated using a methodology agreed upon by all EU countries. The HICP is an indicator for measuring inflation and is used by the European Central Bank to assess price stability. A positive index result strengthens the euro, while a negative one weakens it.
Previous values YoY: +2.1%, +2.2%, +2.3%, +2.6%, +2.8% in January 2025, +2.6%, +2.8% in December 2024, +2.4%, +2.4%, +1.8%, +2.0%, +2.6%, +2.5%, +2.8%, +2.4%, +2.3%, +2.7%, +3.1% in January 2024, +3.8% in December, +2.3% in November, +3.0% in October, +4.3% in September, +6.4% in August, +6.5% in July, +6.8% in June, +6.3% in May, +7.6% in April, +7.8% in March, +9.3% in February, +9,2% in January, +9.6% in December, +11.3% in November, +11.6% in October, +10.9% in September, +8.8% in August, +8.5% in July, +8.2% in June, +8.7% in May, +7.8% in April, +7.6% in March, +5.5% in February, +5.1% in January 2022.
The data indicates a slower pace of inflation in Germany, which in turn is forcing the ECB to ease its monetary policy, especially given the risks of recession in the Eurozone.
Figures lower than the previous reading will likely affect the euro negatively. Conversely, the resumption of inflation growth may provoke the appreciation of the euro.
If the June data turns out to be better than previous values, the euro may strengthen in the short term.
23:50 – JPY: Tankan Large Manufacturing Index for Q2 2025
The index reflects general business conditions for Japan’s large manufacturing companies and estimates the current state of Japan’s export-oriented economy, which is heavily dependent on the industrial sector.
The index value above 0, the midline, is positive for the Japanese yen, while a reading below 0 is negative.
Previous quarterly values: 12 in Q1 2025, 14 in Q4 2024, 13, 13, 11, 13, 9, 5, 1 in Q1 2023. A relative rise in the indicator will bolster the yen, while a relative decline, especially a slide into negative territory, will exert pressure on the currency.
Tuesday, July 1
01:45 – CNY: Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI
The Caixin Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a leading indicator of China’s manufacturing sector. As the world’s second-largest economy, China’s release of significant macroeconomic data may strongly influence the financial market.
Previous values: 48.3, 51.2, 50.8, 50.1 in January 2025, 50.5 in December 2024, 51.5, 50.3, 49.3, 50.4, 49.8, 51.8, 51.7, 51.4, 51.1, 50.9, 50.8, 50.8, 50.8, 50.7, 49.5, 50.6, 51.0, 49.2, 50.5, 50.9, 49.5, 50.0, 51.6, 49.2 in January 2023.
A decline in the indicator value and reading below 50 may negatively affect the renminbi, as well as commodity currencies such as the New Zealand and Australian dollar. Data that exceeds forecasted or previous values will have a positive impact on these currencies.
09:00 – EUR: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices. Core HISP (Flash)
The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is published by Eurostat and measures the change in prices of a selected basket of goods and services over a specific period. The index is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changes in consumer preferences. A positive reading strengthens the euro, while a negative reading weakens it.
Previous values (YoY): +1.9%, +2.2%, +2.2%, +2.3%, +2.5% in January 2025, +2.4% in December 2024, +2.3%, +2.0%, +1.7%, +2.2%, +2.6%, +2.5%, +2.6%, +2.4%, +2.4%, +2.6%, +2.8% in January 2024, +2.9%, +2.4%, +2.9%, +4.3%, +5.2%, +5.3%, +5.5%, +6.1%, +6.1%, +7.0%, +6.9%, +8.5%, +8.6% in January 2023, +9.2%, +10.1%, +10.6%, +9.9%, +9.1%, +8.9%, +8.6%, +8.1%, +7.4%, +7.4%, +5.9%, +5.1% in January 2022.
If the data is worse than the forecasted value, the euro may face a short-term but sharp decline. Conversely, if the data surpasses the forecast and/or the previous value, it could strengthen the euro in the short term. The ECB’s consumer inflation target is just below 2.0%, and the reading suggests that inflation continues to decline in the Eurozone.
According to the accompanying statement following the ECB’s October meeting, when its leaders decided to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, the regulator stated that the disinflation process is underway.
And now, the ECB administration is signaling its intention to continue easing its monetary policy, which is a negative factor for the euro.
The Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (Core HICP) measures the price change of a selected basket of goods and services over a specified period and serves as a key indicator for assessing inflation and consumer preferences. Food and energy are excluded from this indicator in order to provide a more accurate assessment. A high result strengthens the euro, while a low one weakens it.
Previous values YOY: +2.3%, +2.7%, +2.4%, +2.6%, +2.7% in January 2025, 2.7% in December 2024, +2.7%, +2.7%, +2.7%, +2.8%, +2.9%, +2.9%, +2.9%, +2.7%, +2.9%, +3.1%, +3.3% in January 2024, +3.4%, +3.6% +4.2%, +4.5%, +5.3%, +5.5%, +5.5%, +5.3%, +5.3%, +5.6%, +5.7%, +5.6%, +5.3%, +5.2%, +5.0%, +5.0%, +4.8%, +4.3%, +4.0%, +3.7%, +3.8%, +3.5%, +3.0%, +2.7%, +2.3% in January 2022.
If the June 2025 figures are weaker than the previous or forecasted value, the euro may be negatively affected. If the data turns out to be better than the forecasted or previous value, the currency will likely grow.
According to recently reported data, the eurozone’s core inflation rate is still high, above the ECB’s target of 2.0%. As a result, the ECB is inclined to maintain high interest rates, which is favorable for the euro in normal economic conditions.
13:30 – GBP: Bank of England Governor’s Speech
Market participants are waiting for Andrew Bailey to clarify the future policy of the UK central bank. Typically, during the speech of the Bank of England governor, the British pound and the FTSE index of the London Stock Exchange face a significant spike in volatility, especially if there are any indications regarding monetary policy tightening or easing. Andrew Bailey will likely explain the Bank of England’s interest rate decision and discuss the UK economy’s health and prospects against the backdrop of high energy prices and inflation.
The British pound and the FTSE London Stock Exchange often show significant volatility during the Bank of England Governor’s speech, especially if he hints at changes in monetary policy.
14:00 – USD: US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index
The US PMI, published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), is an important measure of the US economy. When the index surpasses 50, it bolsters the US dollar, whereas readings below 50 have a detrimental effect on the greenback.
Previous values: 48,5, 48.7, 49.0, 50.3, 50.9 in January 2025, 49.3 in December 2024, 48.4, 46.5, 47.2, 47.2, 46.8, 48.5, 48.7, 49.2, 50.3, 47.8, 49.1 in January 2024, 47.4 in December, 46.7 in November, 46.7 in October, 49.0 in September, 47.6 in August, 46.4 in July, 46.0 in June, 46.9 in May, 47.1 in April, 46.3 in March, 47.7 in February, 47.4 in January 2023.
The index has been below the 50 level for several months now, indicating a slowdown in this sector of the US economy. The growth of index values supports the US dollar. Conversely, if the index reading falls below the forecasted values or below 50, the greenback may sharply depreciate in the short term.
Wednesday, July 2
01:30 – AUD: Australian Retail Sales
The Retail Sales Index, published monthly by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, measures the total retail sales volume. The index is often considered an indicator of consumer confidence and spending, reflecting also the near-term state of the retail sector. In advanced economies, domestic consumption plays a significant role in driving GDP growth.
Therefore, deterioration of the indicator values may reveal problems with the country’s GDP growth in the future. This is a negative factor for the national currency, as the economic slowdown may force the national central bank to ease monetary policy for businesses by lowering interest rates, in particular.
A surge in the index readings is usually positive for the Australian dollar.
The May 2025 index value stood at +0.3% (after +0.2%, +0.3% in January 2025, -0.1% in December 2024,+0.8%, +0.6%, +0.1%, +0.7%, 0%, +0.5%, +0.6%, +0.1%, -0.4%, +0.2% +1.1%, -2.7%, +2.0%, -0.4%, +0.9%, +0.3%, +0.5%, -0.8%, +0.8%, 0%, +0.4%, +0.2%, +1.9%, -3.9%, +1.7%, +0.4%, +0.6%, +0.6%, +1.3%, +0.2% in previous months). If the data is weaker than the previous figures, the Australian dollar may experience a short-term decline. Conversely, if the data surpasses the previous values, the currency will likely strengthen.
12:15 – USD: ADP Private Sector Employment Report
The ADP report on private sector employment significantly impacts the market and the US dollar. An increase in this indicator value positively affects the greenback. The number of workers in the US private sector is expected to increase again in February after rising by 37k in May, 60k in April, 147k in March, 84k in February, 186k in January 2025, 176k in December 2024,146k in November, 184k in October, 159k in September, 103k in August, 111k in July, 155k in June, 157k in May, 188k in April, 208k in March, 155k in February, 111k in January 2024, 158k in December, 104k in November, 111k in October, 137k in September, 135k in August, 307k in July, 543k in June, 206k in May, 293k in April, 103k in March, 275k in February, 131k in January 2023.
The growth of the index values may positively affect the US dollar, while low index readings may adversely influence it. A negative market reaction and a potential decline in the dollar may occur if the data turns out to be worse than forecasted.
The ADP report is not directly correlated with the official data of the US Department of Labor, which is due on Friday. However, the ADP report often serves as a forerunner of the department’s data and significantly influences the market.
Thursday, July 3
01:30 – AUD: Australian Balance of Trade
Balance of Trade is an indicator that measures the ratio between exports and imports. An increase in Australian exports leads to a larger trade surplus, positively affecting the Australian dollar. Previous values (in billion Australian dollars): 5,413 in April, 6.900 in March, 2,852 in February, 5.156 in January 2025, 4.924 in December, 6.792 in November, 5.670 in October, 4,5362 in September, 5.248 in August, 5.636 in July, 5.425 in June, 5.052 in May, 6.678 in April, 4.841 in March, 6.707 in February, and 9.873 in January 2024.
A decrease in the trade surplus could negatively affect the Australian dollar, while an increase in the indicator figure may bolster the currency.
01:45 – CNY:Caixin China General Services PMI
The Caixin Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a leading indicator of China’s services sector. Since China’s economy is the second largest in the world, the release of its significant macroeconomic indicators can profoundly influence the overall financial market.
Previous values: 51.1, 50.7, 51.9, 51.4, 51.0 in January 2025, 52.2 in December 2024, 51,5, 52.0, 50.3, 51.6, 52.1, 51.2, 54.0, 52.5, 52.7, 52.5, 52.7 in January 2024, 52.9, 51.5, 50.4, 50.2, 51.8, 54.1, 53.9, 57.1, 56.4, 57.8, 55.0, 52.9 in January 2023.
Although an index value above 50 indicates growth, a relative decline in the indicator may adversely affect the yuan. Since China is the most important trade and economic partner of Australia and New Zealand, a deterioration in Chinese macro data may negatively impact the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Conversely, an increase in Chinese macro figures is usually positive for these currencies.
06:30 – CHF: Switzerland Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects the retail price trends for a group of goods and services comprising the consumer basket. The CPI is a key gauge of inflation. Additionally, the index has a significant impact on the value of the Swiss franc.
In May 2025, consumer inflation gained +0.1% but decelerated by -0.1% YoY after 0% in April, +0.6% (+0.3% YoY) in February, -0.1% (+0.4% YoY) in January 2025, -0.1% (+0.6% YoY) in December, -0.1% (+0.7% YoY) in November, -0.1% (+0.6% YoY) in October, -0.3% (+0.8% YoY) in September, 0% (+1.1% YoY) in August, -0.2% (+1.3% YoY) in July, 0% (+1.3% YoY) in June, +0.3% (+1.4% YoY) in May, +0.3% (+1.4% YoY) in April, 0% (+1.2% YoY) in February, +0.2% (+1.3% YoY) January 2024, +1.7% in December 2023, +1.4% in November, and +1.7% YoY in October.
An index reading below the forecasted or previous value may weaken the Swiss franc, as low inflation will force the Swiss Central Bank to ease its monetary policy. Conversely, a high reading would be positive for the Swiss franc.
12:30 – USD: Average Hourly Earnings. Private Nonfarm Payrolls. Unemployment Rate
The most significant US labor market indicators for June.
Previous values: +0.4% in May, +0.2% in April, +0.3% in March and February, +0.5% in January 2025, +0.3% in December 2024, +0.4% in November, October, September, and August, +0.2% in July, +0.3% in June, +0.4% in May, +0.2% in April, +0.3% in March, +0.1% in February, +0.6% in January 2024, +0.4% in December and November 2023, +0.2% in October, September, and August, +0.4% in July and June, +0.3% in May, +0.5% in April, +0.3% in March, +0.2% in February, +0.3% in January 2023 / 227k in November, 36k in October, +255k in September, +78k in August, +114k in July, +118k in June, 216k in May, +108k in April, +310k in March, +236k in February, +256k in January 2024, +290k in December 2023, +182k in November, +165k in October, +246k in September, +210k in August 2023, +210k in August 2023 / 4.2% in November, 4.1% in October and September, 4.2% in August, 4.3% in July, 4.1% in June, 4.0% in May, 3.9% in April, 3.8% in March, 3.9% in February, 3.7% in January 2024, December and November 2023, 3.9% in October, 3.8% in September and August, 3.5% in July, 3.6% in June, 3.7% in May, 3.4% in April, 3.5% in March, 3.6% in February, 3.4% in January 2023.
Overall, the values are positive. Nevertheless, it is often difficult to predict the market’s reaction to the data release, given that many previous figures can be revised. This task becomes even more challenging now due to the contradictory economic situation in the US and many other large economies with the looming risk of recession alongside persistently high inflation.
Regardless, the release of the US labor market data is anticipated to prompt increased volatility not just in the US dollar but also in the entire financial market. Most risk-averse investors will probably prefer to stay out of the market during this period.
14:00 – USD: US ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index
The PMI assesses the state of the US services sector, accounting for about 80% of US GDP. The share of final goods production is about 20% of GDP, including 1% for agriculture and 18% for industrial production. Therefore, the publication of the services sector data significantly impacts the US dollar. An indicator reading above 50 is positive for the currency.
Previous values: 49.9 in May, 51.6 in April, 50.8 in March, 53.5 in February, 52.8 in January 2025, 54.1 in December 2024, 52.1 in November, 56.0 in October, 54.9 in September, 51.5 in August, 51.4 in July, 48.8 in June, 53.8 in May, 49.4 in April, 51.4 in March, 52.6 in February, 53.4 in January 2024, 50.5 in December, 52.5 in November, 51.9 in October, 53.4 in September, 54.5 in August, 52.7 in July, 53.9 in June, 50.3 in May, 51, 9 in April, 51.2 in March, 55.1 in February, 55.2 in January 2023, 49.6 in December, 56.5 in November, 54.4 in October, 56.9 in August, 56.7 in July, 55.3 in June, 55.9 in May, 57.1 in April, 58.3 in March, 56.5 in February, 59.9 in January 2022.
The growth of index values will favorably affect the US dollar. However, a relative decline in the index values and readings below 50 may negatively affect the US dollar in the short term
Friday, July 4
The US is celebrating Independence Day, and banks and stock exchanges will be closed. As a result, trading volumes are expected to be lower than usual. No major economic data releases are scheduled. However, this does not mean that market activity will be muted. On the contrary, thin markets often experience sharp moves in either direction, driven largely by speculative trading.
Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode
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