USD/JPY: Elliott wave analysis and forecast for 03.10.25 – 10.10.25
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Main scenario: Once the correction ends, consider long positions above the level of 142.50 with a target of 154.80 – 158.85. A buy signal: the correction ends and the price holds above 142.50. Stop Loss: below 142.50, Take Profit: 154.80 – 158.85.
- Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below the level of 142.50 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 138.53 – 131.38. A sell signal: the level of 142.50 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 142.50, Take Profit: 138.53 – 131.38.
Main Scenario
Consider long positions above the level of 142.50 with a target of 154.80 – 158.85 once a correction is formed.
Alternative Scenario
Breakout and consolidation below the level of 142.50 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 138.53 – 131.38.
Analysis
On the weekly timeframe, an ascending wave of larger degree 3 has formed, and a downward correction appears to have completed as the fourth wave 4. On the daily time frame, the fifth wave 5 has presumably started forming, with wave (1) of 5 developing as its part. The first wave of smaller degree 1 of (1) appears to have formed on the H4 chart, and a local correction is developing as the second wave 2 of (1). If the presumption is correct, USD/JPY will continue to rise to the levels of 154.80 – 158.85 after the correction ends. The level of 142.50 is critical in this scenario as a breakout will enable the pair to continue falling to the levels of 138.53 – 131.38.
This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.
Price chart of USDJPY in real time mode
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