NASDAQ index turns lower on the day after University of Michigan
US stocks have moved lower after the University of Michigan preliminary estimates for consumer sentiment came in weaker at 67.8 vs 71.1 estimate. The expectations, and current conditions both fell as well. The bigggest surprise was 1- year inflation expectations surged to 4.3% from 3.3%. Worries about tariffs and the expectations for inflation from them?
The US yields have moved higher with the 10 year up 5.7 basis points at 4.494%. The two year is up five point basis points or 4.266%.
Looking at the major indices they have moved from positive to negative on the headline news:
- Dow is down -0.12%
- S&P is down -0.19%
- NASDAQ index down -0.48%.
The USD is struggling with direction with the news today:
- EURUSD: The post-employment high reached 1.0411, while the low touched 1.0348. Positioned between these levels, the 100-hour moving average (1.0365) and 200-hour moving average (1.03758) serve as key technical markers. Following the Michigan data release, the price dipped to 1.0374, testing the 200-hour MA, before rebounding modestly to 1.0384. These moving averages remain pivotal in determining the next directional bias—above them favors bulls, while below signals further downside risk.
- USDJPY: Despite stronger jobs data and higher inflation from the University of Michigan report (and higher yields), USDJPY remains below its key 100- and 200-day moving averages (152.60–152.73). Currently trading at 151.44, the pair hit a fresh low of 150.952, its lowest since December 10, before quickly rebounding. A modest support zone between 151.19 and 151.34 is attempting to hold, keeping the pair in a cautious consolidation phase.
