Review of the main events of the Forex economic calendar for the next trading week (17.03.2025–23.03.2025)
The US dollar experienced challenges in the first half of the month, facing pressure from shifting investor sentiment. Experts predict that rising trade tariffs in the US will place strain on importers and manufacturers of goods, including imported components. Ultimately, this will affect US consumers, who may need to incur higher costs to offset the losses of importers. Investor sentiment is being influenced by long-term negative factors related to the tariff hike and new trade wars, which may exacerbate existing economic trends in the US, leading to a weakening of the US dollar.
In the upcoming week, 17.03.2025–23.03.2025, market participants will focuse on the publication of important macroeconomic data on China, the US, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, the UK, as well as the results of the Bank of Japan, the US Fed, the People’s Bank of China, the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England meetings.
The key event will probably be the release of the US Fed meeting results on Wednesday.
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Monday: important macroeconomic data from China, US retail sales report.
- Tuesday: Canadian CPIs.
- Wednesday: Bank of Japan and US Fed meetings, New Zealand GDP.
- Thursday: Australian and UK labor market data, Swiss and UK central banks’ meetings.
- Friday: no important macro statistics is scheduled.
- Key event of the week: US Fed meeting on 18–19 March.
Monday, March 17
02:00 – CNY: Industrial Production. Retail Sale
The National Bureau of Statistics of China report on industrial production shows the output of Chinese industrial enterprises, such as factories and manufacturing facilities. The increase in industrial production is a positive factor for the yuan, indirectly signaling the possibility of accelerating inflation, which may force the People’s Bank of China to tighten monetary policy.
Conversely, the decline in the indicator value may negatively impact the yuan.
Previous values YoY: +6.2%,+5.4%, +5.3%, +5.4%, +4.5%, +5.1%, +5.3%, +5.6%, +6.7%, +4.5%, +7.0%, +6.8%, +6.6%, +4.5%, +3.7%, +4.4%, +3.5%, +5.6%, +3.9%, +2.4% in February 2023.
The retail sales level index, published monthly by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, gauges the change in the aggregate value of sales at the retail level across the country. The index is often viewed as an indicator of consumer confidence and economic prosperity and reflects the state of the retail sector in the near term. An increase in the index value is usually positive for the yuan, while a decrease in the index value will affect it negatively. Previous values YoY: +3.7%, +3.0%, +4.8%, +3.2%, +2.1%, +2.7%, +2.0%, +3.7%, +2.3%, +3.1%, +5.5%, +7.4%, +10.1%, +4.6%, +2.5%, +3.1%, +12.7%, +18.4%, +10.6%, +3.5%, -1.8%, -5.9% after +8% in the last months of 2019 and -20.5% in February 2020.
The data indicate that this sector of the Chinese economy continues to recover after a strong decline in February and March 2020. If the data prove weaker than the forecasted or previous values, the yuan may experience a decline, potentially a sharp one.
China is a major buyer of commodities and a supplier of a wide range of finished goods to the global commodity market. Since China’s economy is the second largest in the world, the release of its significant macroeconomic indicators can profoundly influence the overall financial market.
Besides, China is the largest trading partner of Australia and New Zealand, purchasing a significant amount of commodities from these countries.
Therefore, positive macro statistics from China may also exert a positive influence on these commodity currencies. Conversely, if the anticipated data indicates a deceleration in one of the world’s largest economies, it would be a detrimental factor for global stock markets and commodity currencies.
12:30 – USD: Retail Sales. Retail Sales Control Group
This Census Bureau report on retail sales reflects the total sales of US retailers of all sizes and types. The change in retail sales is a key indicator of consumer spending. The report is a leading indicator, and the data may be subject to significant revisions in the future. High indicator readings strengthen the US dollar, while low readings weaken it. A relative decline in the indicator may have a short-term negative impact on the US dollar, while a rise in the indicator will positively impact the currency.
In January 2025, the value of the indicator stood at 0.9% (after +0.4% in December, +0.7% in November, +0.4% in October and September, +0.1% in August, +1.1% in July, -0.2% in June, +0.2% in May, -0.2% in April, +0.5% in March, +0.7% in February, -1.1% in January 2024).
Retail sales are the main indicator of consumer spending in the United States, showing the change in the retail industry.
Retail sales serve as an indicator of domestic consumption, contributing the most to the US GDP and being one of the main factors of inflation risks increase or decrease. Deterioration of the indicator values is a negative factor for the US dollar. Inflation deceleration may prompt the Fed to begin the process of monetary policy easing.
The Retail Control Group indicator gauges volume in the retail industry and is used to calculate price indexes for most goods. High readings strengthen the US dollar, while low results weaken the currency. A slight increase in the figures is unlikely to boost the dollar. If the data is lower than the previous readings, the dollar may be negatively impacted in the short term. Previous values: -0,8%, +0.7%, +0.4%, -0.1%, +0.7%, +0.3%, +0.4%, +0.9%, +0.4%, -0.3%, +0.9%, 0%, -0.4% in January 2024, +0.6%, +0.2%, +0.2%, +0.2%, +0.2%, +0.7%, +0.3%, +0.4%, +1.0%, -1.2%, -0.1%, +2.6% in January 2023.
Tuesday, March 18
12:30 – CAD: Canadian Consumer Price Indexes
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects the retail price trends of a selected basket of goods and services. Meanwhile, the Core CPI excludes fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transportation, and tobacco products. The inflation target for the Bank of Canada ranges between 1% and 3%. A higher CPI reading is a sign of a rate hike and is positive for the Canadian dollar.
Previous values:
- CPI:+0.7% (+1.9% YoY), -0.4% (+1.8% YoY), 0% (+1.9% YoY), +0.4% (+2.0% YoY), -0.4% (+1.6% YoY),-0.2% (+2.0% YoY), +0.4% (+2.5% YoY), -0.1% (+2.7% YoY), +0.6% (+2.9% YoY), +0.5% (+2.7% YoY), +0.6% (+2.9% YoY), +0.6% (+2.9% YoY), +0.3% (+2.8% YoY), 0% (+2.9% YoY), -0.3% (+3.4% YoY), +0.1% (+3.1% YoY), +0.1% (+3.1% YoY), -0.1% (+3.8% YoY), +0.4% (+4.0% YoY), +0.6% (+3.3% YoY), +0.1% (+2.8% YoY);
- Core CPI released by the Bank of Canada: +0,4% (+2.1% YoY), +0.3% (+1.8% YoY), -0.1% (+1.6% YoY), +0.4% (+1.7% YoY), 0% (+1.6% YoY), -0.1% (+1.5% YoY), +0.3% (+1.7% YoY), -0.1% (+1.9% YoY), +0.6% (+1.8% YoY), +0.2% (+1.6% YoY), +0.5% (+2.0% YoY), +0.1% (+2.1% YoY), +0.1% (+2, 4% YoY), -0.5% (+2.6% YoY), +0.1% (+2.8% YoY), +0.3% (+2.7% YoY), -0.1% (+2.8% YoY), +0.1% (+3.3% YoY), +0.5% (+3.2% YoY), -0.1% (+3.2% YoY).
The data suggests that inflation continues to decelerate, which prompts the Canadian central bank to consider implementing a dovish monetary policy. If the expected data is worse than the previous values, it will negatively affect the Canadian dollar, but if the data exceeds expectations, it will bolster the currency.
Wednesday, March 19
After 03:00 (Exact Time Not Specified) – JPY: Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision. Bank of Japan Press Conference and Commentary on Monetary Policy
The Bank of Japan will decide on the interest rate. At the moment, the benchmark rate in Japan is 0.50%. The rate will likely remain at the same level. If the rate is cut and returns to negative values, the yen may decline sharply in the currency market, and the Japanese stock market will likely increase. Anyway, a spike of volatility in the yen and Asian financial market is expected during this period.
Since February 2016, the Bank of Japan has kept the deposit rate at -0.1% and the 10-year bond yield target around 0%.
During the 19 March meeting, the BoJ made the decision to increase the interest rate by 10 basis points, shifting it from -0.1% to 0% for the first time since 2007, thus concluding the period of negative interest rates that commenced in 2016. Concurrently, the target for long-term JGBs (YCC) was scrapped, although the BoJ intends to maintain the same level of JGB purchases per month without a specific target. On the other hand, the bank will cease the purchase of ETFs and REITs, gradually decrease, and eventually terminate the acquisition of commercial paper and corporate bonds within 12 months.
According to analysts, if the BoJ hints at further rate hikes, the yen will receive significant support.
During the press conference, BoJ governor Kazuo Ueda will comment on the monetary policy. Despite certain tightening measures, the BoJ continues to adhere to an extra-soft monetary policy. According to former Japanese central bank governor Haruhiko Kuroda, Japan should continue its current soft monetary policy. Markets usually respond prominently to speeches by the BoJ governor. The governor will likely mention the monetary policy again during his speech, leading to increased volatility not only in the yen but also in Asian and global financial markets.
06:30 – JPY: Bank of Japan Press Conference
During the press conference, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will comment on the bank’s monetary policy and interest rate decision. Markets usually react noticeably to speeches of the BoJ governor. If he touches on monetary policy during his speech, volatility will rise not only in the yen but also across Asian and global financial markets.
18:00 – USD: US Fed Interest Rate Decision. Fed Commentary on Monetary Policy. FOMC Economic Projections
During the first half of 2024, the US Fed policymakers left monetary policy parameters unchanged at multiple meetings, maintaining the key interest rate at 5.50%. However, at the September, November, and December meetings, the US Fed’s leaders reduced the interest rate to the current 4.50% and did not rule out further reductions. Notably, a month before these decisions, US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the US central bank’s focus was shifting toward ensuring stability in the labor market. However, Powell emphasized that any decisions regarding interest rates would still hinge on the prevailing economic conditions.
Now, market participants expect the US central bank to continue its monetary easing cycle. Nevertheless, there is also a possibility of an interest rate hike if inflation starts to rise again, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has repeatedly warned earlier.
It is widely anticipated that the rate will remain unchanged at 4.50% at the upcoming meeting.
The financial market may experience higher volatility when the rate decision is announced, particularly in the US stock market and the US dollar, especially if the rate decision does not match the forecast or the Fed makes unexpected statements.
Powell’s commentaries may affect short-term and long-term trading in the US dollar. The Fed’s more aggressive approach to monetary policy is a positive factor that would strengthen the US dollar, while a more cautious position is negative for the greenback. Investors are eagerly awaiting Powell’s remarks on the Fed’s upcoming plans for this year and the next.
Besides, the Fed will release a report with projections on the interest rate, inflation, and economic growth for the next 1–2 years and beyond. Additionally, the perspectives of individual FOMC members on interest rates will be of great interest to market participants.
18:30 – USD: US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Press Conference
The US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conference lasts approximately one hour. The resolution is read in the first part of the meeting, followed by a Q&A session, which may increase market volatility. Any unexpected statements by Jerome Powell on the Fed’s monetary policy will cause a hike in volatility in the US dollar and the US stock market.
21:45 – NZD: New Zealand GDP for Q4
The data release will heighten volatility in the New Zealand dollar. Given the recent rise in commodity and agricultural prices, particularly for dairy products, New Zealand’s major export, and considering that the coronavirus pandemic has least affected New Zealand compared to other large economies, the New Zealand Q4 2024 GDP report will likely be positive.
Previous values YoY: -0.3%, -0.5%, +0.3%, -0.3%, -0.6%, +1.5%, +2.2%, +2.3%, +6.4%, +0.3%, +1.0%, +3.0% in Q4 2022.
Data so far remains contradictory, indicating a halt in the New Zealand economic recovery at the end of 2023 after a downturn in the first half of 2020. If data is worse than previous values, it will negatively affect the New Zealand dollar.
Thursday, March 20
00:30 – AUD: Employment Rate. Unemployment Rate
The employment rate reflects the monthly change in the number of employed Australian citizens. The increase in the indicator value positively impacts consumer spending, stimulating economic growth. A high reading is positive for the Australian dollar, while a low reading is negative. Previous indicator values: +44,000 in January 2025,+56,300 in December 2024, +35,600 in November, +15,900 in October, +64,100 in September, +42,600 in August, +48,900 in July, +52,300 in June, +39,500 in May, +37,400 in April, -6,100 in March, +120,400 in February, +11,900 in January 2024, -58,900 in December 2023, +55,500 in October, +13,400 in September, +62,300 in August, 0 in July, +19,800 in June, +83,800 in May, -14,700 in April, +93,800 in March, +45,100 in February, 23,100 in January 2023.
Besides, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish a report on the unemployment rate. It is an indicator that estimates the ratio of the share of the unemployed population to the total number of working-age citizens. The rise in the indicator readings demonstrates the weakening of the labor market, negatively impacting the national economy. A decrease in the indicator is positive for the Australian dollar.
Forecast: Australian unemployment has remained at its lowest levels and stood at 4.1% in February (against 4.1% in January 2025, 4.0% in December, 3.9% in November, 4.1% in October, September, and August, 4.2% in July, 4.1% in June, 4.0% in May, 3.8% in April, 3.7% in March and February, 4.1% in January, 3.9% in December and November, 3.8% in October, 3.6% in September, 3.7% in August and July, 3.5% in June, 3.6% in May, 3.7% in April, 3.5% in March and February, 3.7% in January, 3.5% in December, 3.4% in November and October, 3.5% in September and August, 3.4% in July, 3.5% in June, 3.9% in May and April, 4.0% in March and February, 4.2% in January), while the employment rate has increased.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has repeatedly stated that the Australian economy and the central bank’s plans are influenced by key indicators like the level of household debt and spending, wage growth, and the state of the labor market, in addition to the international trade situation. If the indicator readings are lower than expected, the Australian dollar may decline significantly in the short term, while higher data will strengthen the currency.
01:15 – CNY: People’s Bank of China Interest Rate Decision
Since May 2012, the People’s Bank of China has been lowering its interest rate to support Chinese manufacturers. Last time, the bank reduced the rate in October 2024 after a long pause since August 2023, bringing the rate down by 0.1% to its current level of 3.10%.
In 2024, the world’s major central banks have also started a policy easing cycle amid slowing inflation. What will the Chinese central bank do this time after pausing since September 2023 and easing policy in July 2024?
The People’s Bank of China will likely keep the interest rate unchanged at 3.10% at this meeting, although other decisions are also possible.
Should the People’s Bank of China make statements that deviate from expectations, volatility may increase across the entire financial market, particularly in the Asian one. Investors will closely watch the bank’s assessment of the Chinese economy’s prospects and its policy stance in the short term.
07:00 – GBP: Average Weekly Earnings Over the Last Three Months. Unemployment Rate
The UK Office for National Statistics monthly publishes a report on average weekly earnings covering the period for the last three months, including and excluding bonuses.
This report is a key short-term indicator of employee average earnings changes in the UK. An increase in wages is positive for the British pound, whereas a low indicator value is unfavorable. Forecast: The March report suggests that average earnings, including bonuses, rose again in the last three months, including November, December, amd January, after gaining +6.0%, +5.6%, +5.2%, +4.3%, +3.8%, +4.0%, 4.5%, +5.7%, +5.9%, +5.7%, +5.6%, +5.6%, +5.8%, +6.5%, +7.2%, +7.9%, +8.1%, +8.5%, +8.2%, +6.9%, +6.5%, +5.8%, +5.9%, +6.0%, +6.5%, +6.%, +6.1%, +5.5%, +5.2%, +6.4%, +6.8%, +7.0%, +5.6%, +5.7%, +4.8%, +4.3%, +4.2% in previous periods. The earnings value excluding bonuses also increased with percentages at +5.9%, +5.6%, +5.2%, +4.8%, +4.9%, +5.1%, +5.4%, +6.0%, +6.0%, +6.0%, +6.1%, +6.2%, +6.6%, +7.3%, +7.7%, +7.8%, +7.8%, +7.8%, +7.8%, +7.3%, +7.2%, +6.7%, +6.6%, +6.6%, +6.7%, +6.5%, +6.1%, +5.8%, +5.5%, +5.2%, +4.7%, +4.4%, +4.2%, +4.2%, +4.1%, +3.8%, +3.7%, +3.8% in previous periods. These figures show continued growth in employee earnings levels, which is positive for the British pound. If the data outperforms the forecast and/or previous values, the pound will likely strengthen in the currency exchange market. Conversely, if the data falls short of the forecast/previous values, the pound will be negatively affected.
The UK unemployment data will be released at the same time. Unemployment is expected to stand at 4.4% for the three months of November, December, amd January, (against 4.4%, 4.4%, 4.3%, 4.3%, 4.0%, 4.1%, 4.2%, 4.4%, 4.4%, 4.3%, 4.2%, 4.0%, 3.8%, 3.9%, 4.0%, 4.1%, 4.2%, 4.3%, 4.2%, 4.0%, 3.9% in previous periods).
Since 2012, the UK unemployment rate has fallen steadily from 8.0% in September 2012. The unemployment decline is a positive factor for the pound, while its growth negatively impacts the currency.
If the UK labor market data appears to be worse than the forecast and/or the previous value, the pound will be under pressure.
Regardless, when the UK labor market data is released, the pound and the London Stock Exchange are expected to experience increased volatility.
08:30 – CHF: Swiss National Bank’s Interest Rate Decision. SNB Monetary Policy Statement
Before the June 2022 SNB meeting, the deposit rate was negative and stood at -0.75%. However, this central bank meeting resulted in the rate being raised to -0.25%.
In the accompanying statement, SNB chairman Thomas Jordan noted that the Swiss franc is no longer overvalued. He also mentioned that the implementation of a tighter monetary policy is intended to prevent an increase in inflation in Switzerland.
Recently, the Swiss franc has once again gained popularity as a safe-haven asset. However, the possibility of intervention is currently preventing the currency from experiencing significant growth. SNB executives emphasize that intervening in the foreign exchange market is crucial for maintaining the low investment appeal of the franc and alleviating upward pressure on the currency.
The deposit rate is widely anticipated to remain at 0.5% at the end of the March 2025 meeting, following the unexpected reductions by 0.25% at the March, June, and September 2024 meetings.
Besides, traders will scrutinize the SNB statement for signals regarding the further monetary policy plans. The hawkish tone of the statement will favor the Swiss franc. Conversely, the soft tone and inclination to resume the loose monetary policy will negatively affect the currency. If the SNB board makes unexpected statements, volatility in the currency market and the Swiss franc is expected to increase.
09:00 – CHF: Swiss National Bank Press Conference
The SNB press conference will commence after the release of the interest rate decision. During the press conference and the speech of SNB chairman Martin Schlegel, who succeeded Thomas Jordan at the end of September 2024, volatility in the Swiss franc will surge. Traders expect signals regarding further plans for the SNB’s monetary policy. The hawkish tone of Martin Schlegel’s speech will bolster the Swiss franc, while a softer tone and the SNB’s inclination towards a soft monetary policy will negatively affect the franc.
11:00 – GBP: Bank of England Interest Rate Decision. Bank of England Meeting Minutes. Bank of England’s Asset Purchase Facility. Monetary Policy Report
As a result of the August 2023 meeting, the interest rate was increased to 5.25%. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee has decided to raise borrowing costs amid a robust labor market to curb price growth. However, further tightening of monetary policy may be required to bring inflation to the 2.0% target.
Since the September 2023 meeting, the Bank of England has maintained a wait-and-see stance. Finally, on August 1, 2024, the Bank of England cut the interest rate by 0.25% to 5.00%, marking the first cut since August 2023. The rate currently stands at 4.50%.
At the upcoming meeting, the Bank of England may decide to cut interest rates again, given the declining inflation in the country, or take a pause, considering the positive macro data from the UK and the complex geopolitical situation in Europe, particularly in Ukraine.
Analysts believe that the Bank of England may reduce the interest rate. However, the market reaction may be unpredictable.
At the same time, the BoE will publish the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) minutes, including a breakdown of the votes for and against interest rate changes. The main UK risks after Brexit are related to expectations of a slowdown in the country’s economic growth, as well as a large deficit in the UK balance of payments account.
Uncertainty about the Bank of England’s next step persists. Meanwhile, the British Pound and FTSE100 futures offer a lot of trading opportunities during the publication of the Bank’s rate decision.
Besides, the Bank of England will release its monetary policy report, providing an assessment of the economic outlook and inflation. Volatility in the British pound may grow sharply during this period. Apart from GDP, the UK inflation rate is one of the primary indicators for the Bank of England’s monetary policy stance. A soft tone of the report will likely boost the British stock market but cause the British pound to weaken. Conversely, the report’s hawkish tone regarding inflation, implying an interest rate hike, will strengthen the pound.
18:05 – CAD: Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem’s Speech
The Canadian economy, like the global economy, is slowing down, and the situation is rapidly shifting for the worse. It will be interesting to hear Macklem’s perspective on Canada’s economic outlook and the central bank’s monetary policy amid falling inflation.
If Tiff Macklem mentions the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy, the volatility in the Canadian dollar will grow sharply. A signal of monetary policy tightening will bolster the Canadian dollar. Conversely, an intent to ease monetary policy will have a negative impact on the currency.
Additionally, Tiff Macklem will likely clarify the Bank of Canada’s recent interest rate decision and provide guidance for investors ahead of the central bank’s upcoming meeting.
Friday, March 21
There are no important macro statistics scheduled to be released.
Price chart of GBPUSD in real time mode
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