Brent Between Two Fires: Can the Market Find Direction? Forecast as of 14.11.2025
The latest OPEC+ forecast of an upcoming oil surplus shook the market. However, the situation may not be as dramatic as it first appeared. The key questions remain unanswered, and that only heightens the tension. Let’s explore this and make a trading plan for Brent.
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- OPEC forecasts a surplus.
- Market conditions differ sharply across regions.
- The IEA warns that Russia may cut production.
- A breakout of the $62.3–$65.5 range may signal an opportunity to open positions in Brent.
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Oil
Things are not always what they seem. OPEC+’s forecast of an oversupply in 2026 startled investors so much that Brent and WTI immediately plunged 3%. Earlier, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries expected a deficit. The market reacted first and analyzed later. But what if the Alliance’s revised projections serve as guidance for its own actions rather than a message to investors?
The oil market is full of contradictions in 2025. Why haven’t Western sanctions on Russia pushed prices to the moon? And why isn’t the IEA’s projected record surplus of 4 million bpd in 2026 causing Brent to collapse? Black gold is pulled in opposite directions, trying to make sense of what’s happening.
Market conditions vary dramatically between the Western and Eastern hemispheres. While WTI futures curves are in deep contango, Brent shows none of that.
Oil Futures Curve Dynamics
Source: Bloomberg.
When the U.S. Energy Information Administration raises its 2026 production outlook from 13.51 to 13.58 million bpd, and crude oil exports in October jump to the highest levels since July, the contango is hardly surprising. Demand for prompt barrels is low. In the Eastern hemisphere, the situation is different. China is building up inventories, and sanctions on Moscow are increasing the number of tankers stuck at sea. According to Vortexa, Kpler, and OilX, around 40% of that growth is linked to Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. And that’s not counting the shadow fleet, which the Kremlin actively uses while insisting that the latest sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft will have only a limited economic impact.
Trends in Oil Volumes at Sea
Source: Bloomberg.
The new OPEC+ forecast appeared against that backdrop. According to Reuters, if the Organization continues pumping at October’s level of 43.02 million bpd, it will face a 200,000 bpd supply surplus in 2026. In September and October, the Alliance expected deficits of 50,000 bpd and 700,000 bpd. But in reality, a surplus means OPEC+ will think twice before increasing production. That’s good news for Brent bulls. No surprise that after a 3% drop, Brent recovered most of the losses.
Still, uncertainties remain: will Russia manage to bypass sanctions? And will the oil market face a record surplus in 2026? Answers to these questions will determine Brent’s direction. The IEA warns that Russian oil output could fall sharply due to restrictions, yet the agency also believes that slower EV adoption will keep oil demand rising until 2050.
Weekly Trading Plan for Brent
Time will tell. For now, it makes sense to focus on a range breakout. A successful breakout above $65.3 per barrel would be a signal to go long on Brent. A decline below $62.3 would trigger short positions.
This forecast is based on the analysis of fundamental factors, including official statements from financial institutions and regulators, various geopolitical and economic developments, and statistical data. Historical market data are also considered.
Price chart of UKBRENT in real time mode
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