Forex Economic Calendar Overview: Key Events for the Next Trading Week (07.04.2025–13.04.2025)
Increased volatility and turbulence continue to rattle the markets, while contradictory macroeconomic data keeps flowing from the US. Adding to the uncertainty, the US President has been hinting at new tariffs, though he often ends up canceling or adjusting them later. However, this isn’t always the case. Amidst all this chaos, it seems that only gold buyers remain in favor since the precious metal keeps setting new price records.
In the upcoming week of 07.04.2025–13.04.2025, market participants will monitor a new block of macroeconomic statistics from the US, particularly focusing on new inflation data. Additionally, important data from the Eurozone, China, and Germany, as well as the results of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting, will be expected.
Besides, Oceanian countries, including Australia and New Zealand, will switch to wintertime on Sunday, April 6.
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Monday: Eurozone retail sales.
- Tuesday: no important macro statistics is scheduled.
- Wednesday: the RBNZ meeting, the FOMC minutes release.
- Thursday: Chinese CPI, US CPI publication.
- Friday: German CPI, US PPIs, preliminary US Consumer Sentiment Index (by the University of Michigan).
- Key event of the week: US Consumer Price Index release.
Monday, April 7
09:00 – EUR: Eurozone Retail Sales
Retail sales data is the main measure of consumer spending, indicating the change in the sales volume. A high indicator result strengthens the euro, while a low one weakens it.
Previous values: -0.3% (+1.5% YoY), -0.2% (+1.9% YoY) in January 2025, +0.1% (+1.2% YoY) in December 2024, -0.5% (+1.9% YoY), +0.5% (+2.9% YoY), +0.2% (+0.8% YoY), +0.1% (-0.1% YoY), -0.3% (-0.3% YoY), +0.1% (+0.3% YoY), -0.5% (0% YoY), +0.8% (+0.7% YoY), -0.5% (-0.7% YoY), +0.1% (-1.0% YoY) in January 2024, -1.1% (-0.8% YoY) in December, -0.3% (-1.1% YoY) in November, +0.1% (-1.2% YoY) in October, -0.3% (-2.9% YoY) in Sept, 1.2% (-2.1% YoY) in August, -0.2% (-1.0% YoY) in July, -0.3% (-1.4% YoY) in June, 0% (-2.4% YoY) in May, -1.2% (-2.9% YoY) in April, -0.8% (-3.3% YoY) in March, +0.3% (-2.4% YoY) in February, -2.7% (-1.8% YoY) in January, +0.8% (-2.8% YoY) in December 2022.
The data suggest that retail sales have not returned to pre-pandemic levels after a severe drop in March–April 2020, when Europe was under strict quarantine measures, and are periodically declining again. Nevertheless, values exceeding the forecast will strengthen the euro.
Tuesday, April 8
There are no important macro statistics scheduled to be released.
Wednesday, April 9
02:00 – NZD: Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Interest Rate Decision. Accompanying Statement
Previously, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) indicated that the economy no longer required the same level of monetary stimulus. Afterward, the bank decided to ease the monetary policy in August 2024, reducing the official cash rate by 0.25% to 5.25%. Prior to this change, the RBNZ maintained a pause for eight consecutive meetings. In October and November, the rate was cut again by 0.50% each time. In 2025, the RBNZ continued its policy easing cycle, reducing the interest rate to the current level of 3.75%.
Economists expect New Zealand’s borrowing costs to fall further amid a sustained slowdown in inflation and a volatile labor market.
The New Zealand currency faced significant pressure after the RBNZ opted to cut the interest rate. The accompanying statement revealed that the decision was made given expectations of a further drop in inflation, which is gradually returning to the target range of 1.0%–3.0%. Inflation expectations have also decreased.
At this meeting, the RBNZ may either reduce the interest rate again, advocating for further monetary policy easing, or leave the rate at the current level. Market participants monitoring the New Zealand dollar performance should be prepared for a notable uptick in volatility during this time.
In the accompanying statement and commentary, the RBNZ officials will explain the interest rate decision and the economic factors that influenced it.
18:00 – USD: Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes
The FOMC minutes release is extremely important for determining the course of the Fed’s current policy and the prospects for US interest rate hikes. Volatility in financial markets usually increases during the minutes’ publication, as they often reveal changes or provide clarifications from the latest FOMC meeting
Following the December 18, 2024 meeting central bank governors decided to reduce the federal funds rate by 0.25% to 4.50% and indicated a leaning towards further monetary policy easing to bolster the labor market.
However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that a pause in rate cuts is also possible. He emphasized that the US Fed officials remain confident that inflation is on track to reach the 2.0% target and that there is no need to rush to reduce rates given continued economic growth and a robust labor market.
At the first meeting in 2025, the Fed decided to keep the interest rate at 4.50%.
Many market participants now assume that the Fed will maintain the interest rate unchanged at 4.50% until the summer of 2025. Moreover, long-term forecasts suggest there may be a gradual reduction to 3.9% by the end of 2025, indicating fewer adjustments than previously anticipated.
The dovish tone of the minutes will positively impact stock indices and negatively affect the US dollar. The hawkish Fed’s rhetoric on the monetary policy may boost the greenback.
Thursday, April 10
01:30 – CNY: Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The National Bureau of Statistics of China will release its fresh monthly data on consumer prices. The growth of consumer prices may trigger the acceleration of inflation, prompting the People’s Bank of China to implement tighter fiscal policy. Higher consumer inflation may cause yuan appreciation, while a low result may exert pressure on the currency.
Since China is the world’s second-largest economy, the publication of its significant macroeconomic data has a notable impact on the global financial markets. This influence extends particularly to the yuan, other Asian currencies, the US dollar, and commodity currencies. Moreover, China serves as the largest buyer of raw materials and supplier of a wide range of finished goods to the global commodity market.
In February 2024, the consumer inflation index value stood at -0.2% (-0.7% YoY) after +0.7% (+0.5% YoY) in January 2025, -0.6% (+0.2% YoY) in November 2024, -0.3% (+0.3% YoY) in October, 0% (+0.4% YoY) in September, +0.5% (+0.5% YoY) in July 2024, -0.2% (+0.2% YoY) in June, -0.1% (+0.3% YoY) in May, +0.1% (+0.3% YoY) in April, +0.1% (-2.7% YoY) in December 2023, -0.5% (-0.5% YoY) in November, +0.2% (0% YoY) in September, +0.3% (+0.1% YoY) in July, -0.2% (0% YoY) in June, -0.2% (0% YoY) in May, -0.2% (+0.2% YoY).
The increase in the consumer inflation index will positively affect the renminbi quotes, as well as commodity currencies. Conversely, if the data is worse than forecasted and there is a relative decline in the CPI, it may adversely affect the currencies, particularly the Australian dollar, given that China is Australia’s largest trade and economic partner.
09:00 – AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock’s Speech
Michele Bullock will assess the current state of Australia’s economy and outline her department’s monetary policy. Market participants anticipate her insights on the central bank’s policies amid global recessionary trends and elevated inflation levels in Australia.
Any signals regarding her plans to adjust the RBA’s monetary policy parameters will cause a sharp surge in the Australian currency and stock market volatility. If the Australian Central Bank Governor avoids discussing monetary policy, the market response will be muted.
12:30 – USD: Consumer Price Indexes
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period. It is a key indicator for assessing inflation trends and changes in consumer preferences. Food and energy are excluded from the Core CPI to provide a more accurate assessment.
A high index reading typically strengthens the US dollar by signaling an increased likelihood of the Fed interest rate hike, while a low reading generally weakens the currency.
Previous values YoY:
- CPI: +2.8%, +3.0% in January 2025, +2.9%, +2.7%, +2.6%, +2.4%, +2,5%, +2.9%, +3.0%, +3.3%, +3.4%, +3.5%, +3.2%, +3.1%, +3.4%, +3.1% +3.2%, +3.7%, +3.7%, +3.2%, +3.0%, +4.0%, +4.9%, +5.0%, +6.0%, +6.4% in January 2023;
- Core CPI: +3.1%, +3.3% in January 2025, +3.2%, +3.3%, +3.3%, +3.3%, +3.2%, +3.2%, +3.3%, +3.4%, +3.6%, +3.8%, +3.8%, +3.9%, +3.9%, +4.0%, +4.0%, +4.1%, +4.3%, +4.7%, +4.8%, +5.3%, +5.5%, +5.6%, +5.5%, +5.6% in January 2023.
The data shows that inflation is in no hurry to decline. Although it is well below the 2022 level, when annual inflation in the US reached a 40-year high of 9.1% in June, the rate of decline is slower than the Fed expected. US inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target, forcing the central bank to keep interest rates high. In case of possible reduction, the Fed will likely pause to assess the economic and labor market situation.
If the figures are confirmed or prove to be lower than expected, the US dollar will likely decline in value in the short term. Readings higher than estimated will strengthen the currency, increasing the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate high for longer.
Friday, April 11
06:00 – EUR: German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (Final Estimate)
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is published by the European Statistics and is calculated using a methodology agreed upon by all EU countries. The HICP is an indicator for measuring inflation and is used by the European Central Bank to assess price stability. A positive index result strengthens the euro, while a negative one weakens it.
Previous values YoY: +2.8% in January 2025, +2.6%, +2.8% in December 2024, +2.4%, +2.4%, +1.8%, +2.0%, +2.6%, +2.5%, +2.8%, +2.4%, +2.3%, +2.7%, +3.1% in January 2024, +3.8% in December, +2.3% in November, +3.0% in October, +4.3% in September, +6.4% in August, +6.5% in July, +6.8% in June, +6.3% in May, +7.6% in April, +7.8% in March, +9.3% in February, +9,2% in January, +9.6% in December, +11.3% in November, +11.6% in October, +10.9% in September, +8.8% in August, +8.5% in July, +8.2% in June, +8.7% in May, +7.8% in April, +7.6% in March, +5.5% in February, +5.1% in January 2022.
The data suggests that German inflation continues to decelerate, albeit at a slower pace than expected. This situation is putting pressure on the European Central Bank to ease its monetary policy. Figures lower than the previous reading will likely affect the euro negatively. Conversely, the resumption of inflation growth may provoke the appreciation of the euro. The growth of the indicator values is a positive factor for the currency.
If the March data turns out to be better than previous values, the euro may strengthen in the short term.
12:30 – USD: Producer Price Index (PPI)
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change in wholesale prices determined by manufacturers at all stages of production. The index is one of the leading inflation indicators in the United States, estimating the average change in wholesale producer prices.
Rising production costs increase wholesale selling prices, which ultimately boosts inflation. In normal economic conditions, growing inflation usually puts upward pressure on the national currency quotes, implying a tighter central bank monetary policy.
Previous values: 0% (+3.2%YoY), +0,4% (+3,5% YoY) in January 2025,+0.2% (+3.3% YoY) in December, +0.4% (+3.0% YoY) in November, +0.2% (+2.4% YoY) in October, 0% (+1.8% YoY) in September, +0.2% (+1.7% YoY) in August, +0.1% (+2.2% YoY) in July, +0.2% (+2.6% YoY) in June, -0.2% (+2.2% YoY) in May, +0.5% (+2.2% YoY) in April, +0.2% (+1,6% YoY) in March, +0.6% (+1.6% YoY) in February, +0.3% (+0.9% YoY) in January 2024, 0% (+0.9% YoY) in December 2023, -0.5% (+1.3% YoY), +0.5% (+2.2% YoY), +0.7% (+1.6% YoY), +0.3% (+0.8% YoY), +0.1% (+0.2% YoY), -0.3% (+0,9% YoY), +0.2% (+2.3% YoY), -0.5% (+2.7% YoY), -0.1% (+4.9% YoY), +0.7% (+5.7% YoY) in January 2023.
If the data exceeds the forecasted value, the US dollar will likely strengthen. Conversely, if the data falls below forecasted and previous values, this will exert pressure on the Fed. This could lead to the Fed’s monetary policy easing, which will negatively impact the US dollar.
14:00 – USD: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary Release)
This indicator reflects American consumers’ confidence in the country’s economic development. A high reading indicates economic growth, while a low one points to stagnation. Previous indicator values: 57.0 in March, 64.7 in Fabruary, 71.1 in January, 74.0 in December, 71.8 in November, 70.5 in October, 70.1 in September, 67.9 in August, 66.4 in July, 68.2 in June, 69.1 in May, 77.2 in April, 79.4 in March, 76.9 in February, 79.0 in January 2024, 69.7 in December 2023, 61.3 in November, 63.8 in October, 68.1 in September, 69.5 in August, 71.6 in July, 64.4 in June, 59.2 in May, 63,5 in April, 62.0 in March, 67.0 in February, 64.9 in January 2023, 59.7 in December, 56.8 in November, 59.9 in October, 58.6 in September, 58.2 in August, 51.5 in July, 50.0 in June, 58.4 in May, 65.2 in April, 59.4 in March, 62.8 in February, 67.2 in January 2022. An increase in the indicator will strengthen the US dollar, while a decrease will weaken the currency. The data shows that the recovery of this indicator is uneven, which is unfavorable for the greenback. A decline below previous values will likely negatively impact the US dollar in the near term.
Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode
The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance broker. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU.
According to copyright law, this article is considered intellectual property, which includes a prohibition on copying and distributing it without consent.
