Gold FOMO Fuels Bull Run. Forecast as of 07.10.2025
It may seem that gold is being bought because its value is rising. In fact, the XAUUSD rally has drivers, and their number is constantly growing. Let’s discuss this topic and make a trading plan for gold.
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- The US shutdown has pushed XAUUSD quotes above $3,970.
- Political crises in Japan and France are supporting gold.
- The precious metal has retained its main advantages.
- Gold can be bought with targets of $4,100 and $4,300 per ounce.
Monthly Fundamental Forecast for Gold
If you want to achieve a goal, you look for opportunities to do so. If you are not interested in pursuing this opportunity, it is common to look for reasons why. In 2025, the market experienced significant fluctuations, leading to widespread FOMO. The fear of missing out has spurred demand for gold, pushing its prices to record highs of around $3,978 per ounce. In September, gold recorded its best monthly gain since 2011, and since the beginning of the year, prices have skyrocketed by more than 50%, notching the best performance since 1979. Investors are continually generating new reasons to purchase gold. In the fall, these were the US government shutdown and political crises in Japan and France.
Gold’s Bull Runs
Source: Financial Times.
If the spring rally in gold was driven by US tariffs and undermined confidence in the US dollar, then the autumn surge in XAUUSD quotes was the result of fears about financial turmoil. The government shutdown, mass layoffs, and slowing US GDP are only part of the puzzle. In November, the case on import duties will be reviewed. If the US Supreme Court confirms their illegality, $165 billion in fees will have to be returned.
According to Donald Trump, this will be a disaster. I agree with the US president, because the source of funding for the big and beautiful tax reduction bill will disappear into thin air. The budget hole will have to be plugged with new borrowing and an increase in public debt. In Japan, Sanae Takaichi, who is set to become the first female prime minister, is pushing for large-scale fiscal stimulus. In France, opposition to the government by political parties has led to the resignation of the fourth prime minister.
In all three cases, confidence in currencies — the US dollar, the yen, and the euro — has been undermined. The weakness of fiat currencies, along with hedging against the risks of sharp growth in public debt, is another advantage for gold.
Gold Price and US Dollar Performance
Source: Bloomberg.
Notably, net inflows into gold-backed ETFs have risen to $13.6 billion over the past four weeks. The figure is heading towards $60 billion, a record high for any year on record. The stocks of specialized exchange-traded funds jumped to 3,800 tons, approaching the peak reached during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Goldman Sachs has seen more demand from retail investors than it had anticipated, prompting the bank to raise its gold forecast from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026.
It may seem that the precious metal is being bought because it is rising. However, there are reasons for the gold FOMO. Most of the bulls’ main advantages for XAUUSD, including geopolitics, Fed monetary expansion, de-dollarization, and central bank purchases of bullion, are still intact. At the same time, new drivers appear. Therefore, investors want to buy gold and are doing so.
Monthly XAUUSD Trading Plan
Even after hitting the bullish target of $3,900 on the XAUUSD, it is advisable to maintain long positions, as bulls will likely buy the asset on even the slightest dips. New bullish targets are $4,100 and $4,300 per ounce.
This forecast is based on the analysis of fundamental factors, including official statements from financial institutions and regulators, various geopolitical and economic developments, and statistical data. Historical market data are also considered.
Price chart of XAUUSD in real time mode
The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance broker. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU.
According to copyright law, this article is considered intellectual property, which includes a prohibition on copying and distributing it without consent.
