Gold Under Pressure Ahead of US CPI. Forecast as of 15.07.2025
In 2025, gold is performing worse than all other precious metals. The primary issue is its exorbitant price. Central banks are displaying a lower demand for gold than they did. What will be the trajectory of the XAUUSD? Let’s discuss this topic and make a trading plan.
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Gold is losing ground to silver, platinum, and palladium.
- Central banks have slowed down their bullion purchases.
- The future of the XAUUSD depends on US inflation data.
- Gold can be sold if the US CPI accelerates.
Daily Fundamental Forecast for Gold
Markets are inherently cyclical. Excessively high prices can lead to a decline in demand, which ultimately results in a fall in asset prices. This is particularly relevant in cases where a substitute for the asset exists. Gold serves as a prime example of this trend. Over the past three years, it has increased by 98%, and since the beginning of 2025, by 27.5%. However, for the second consecutive month, the XAUUSD has remained within the $3,250–$3,400 range. The precious metal is overbought, allowing its counterparts to shine.
Platinum is the most sought-after in 2025, with jewelers rapidly acquiring it. The metal has demonstrated its strongest performance in recent weeks, coinciding with the closure of several Impala Platinum Holdings mines. The holdings of the exchange-traded fund (ETF) focused on silver have increased by 2,570 tons since February, marking an eight-week winning streak. This represents the longest streak in almost five years. As a result, the indicator has reached its highest level since 2022.
Meanwhile, the decline in the XAUXAG ratio indicates that the gold market is overbought. This is also reflected in the 20 tons of bullion purchased by central banks in May, below the average for the last 12 months of 27 tons.
Gold-Silver Ratio
Source: Bloomberg.
Notably, a single report is not sufficient to draw definitive conclusions. According to Heraeus, central banks will continue to purchase gold to replenish their reserves. This, combined with the weakening of the US dollar, increases the likelihood of XAUUSD returning to $3,500 above the chances of it falling below $3,240. However, if the support level is broken through, the asset will unlikely continue to grow.
The outlook for gold is influenced by a combination of competitive pressures among precious metals and the broader trends of the USD index. This, in turn, is influenced by the state of the US economy and the monetary policy. The Wall Street Journal has revised its projections, lowering the probability of a recession in the next 12 months from 45% to 33%. Analysts expect GDP to grow by 1% in 2025. If the US maintains its current economic stability, the Fed will not hastily reduce interest rates. Over the past two weeks, the derivatives market has lowered the chances of a September cut from 95% to 63%.
Market Expectations on Fed Rate Cuts
Source: Bloomberg.
In regard to tariffs, investors prefer a straightforward “show me, don’t tell me” approach. Regardless of the figures Donald Trump may propose, the market anticipates that the actual tariffs will be lower. Nevertheless, the promised 100% tariffs on imports from Russia on Tuesday sent shockwaves through the financial markets, allowing gold to recover.
Daily Trading Plan for Gold
The June inflation report will bring clarity to the situation. Accelerating consumer prices could cast doubt on the prospect of a Fed rate cut in 2025. This will strengthen the US dollar and hurt gold, allowing investors to sell the precious metal near $3,250 per ounce. Conversely, disappointing CPI data will likely prompt criticism of the central bank from Donald Trump, diminishing confidence in the US dollar, and creating an opportunity to purchase the XAUUSD with targets of $3,425 and $3,445.
This forecast is based on the analysis of fundamental factors, including official statements from financial institutions and regulators, various geopolitical and economic developments, and statistical data. Historical market data are also considered.
Price chart of XAUUSD in real time mode
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