Platinum Avoids Tariffs But Faces More Roadblocks Ahead. Forecast as of 12.08.2025
Donald Trump’s policies are both hindering and helping platinum. The precious metal has avoided tariffs, which will calm the market. However, import duties on cars are creating headwinds for the XPTUSD. Let’s discuss these topics and make a trading plan.
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- The absence of tariffs on platinum stabilized the market.
- Declining demand for cars caused XPTUSD quotes to fall.
- Platinum will underperform gold.
- Short trades can be considered as long as platinum is trading below $1,350.
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Platinum
Tariffs, the strengthening of the US dollar, and falling lease rates have triggered a correction in the XPTUSD. Platinum plunged from its 11-year highs due to a sharp decline in demand from the automotive industry. Rumors of import duties on gold allowed the precious metal to recover. However, the correction persists.
Tariffs have become a key driver of pricing for various commodities. The US administration will impose them on precious metals, which will result in the transfer of bullion from London and Zurich to New York. Platinum stocks on US exchanges rose sharply, as did European lease rates. The latter surged to 40%, propelling the XPTUSD to its highest level since August 2014.
Platinum Stockpiles in US Warehouses
Source: Bloomberg.
Platinum surged as capital outflows from ETFs, amounting to 215,000 ounces, were offset by inflows to New York warehouses, amounting to 290,000 ounces. The platinum market is projected to experience a deficit for the third consecutive year. Moreover, high demand from China has spurred platinum prices.
In the second quarter, China imported a record 1.2 million ounces. Furthermore, supply has consistently exceeded domestic demand, contributing to a decline in land-based inventories outside China and a rise in XPTUSD quotes.
China’s Platinum Imports Exceeding Domestic Demand
Source: Bloomberg.
On paper, rising prices should boost the supply of an asset. According to Valterra Platinum’s estimates, approximately 90% of the mining industry is currently generating revenue, which is a significant increase from the 60% recorded at the end of 2024. However, challenges related to increasing capacity and disruptions to supply chains are hindering producers’ ability to scale up production.
At the same time, declining demand from the automotive industry, which accounts for about 40% of platinum consumption, and the strengthening of the dollar after the US concluded several trade agreements with major global economies forced XPTUSD bulls to retreat.
While the 15% US import duty on cars proved to be less detrimental to Japan and Europe than initially predicted, it still resulted in a 5.1% decrease in new car sales in Europe, reaching 1.24 million in June, marking the most significant decline in 10 months.
Car Sales in Europe
Source: Bloomberg.
Weekly Trading Plan for Platinum
The absence of import duties on precious metals will likely stabilize the market. It will require time for the European automotive industry to accommodate the new tariffs. In light of these developments, platinum is likely to lose ground to gold. Therefore, short trades on the XPTUSD that were initiated at $1,420 can be kept open as long as the price remains below $1,350. A breakout of this level will allow traders to open long positions.
This forecast is based on the analysis of fundamental factors, including official statements from financial institutions and regulators, various geopolitical and economic developments, and statistical data. Historical market data are also considered.
Price chart of XPTUSD in real time mode
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