Platinum Leaves Gold Behind. Forecast as of 13.06.2025
Platinum is having its moment this summer. The precious metal is on track for its best monthly performance since 2008, driven by tightening supply and surging demand. It is a compelling alternative to gold. Let’s discuss it and make a trading plan.
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- The platinum market is expected to post a deficit of around 1 million ounces.
- Lease rates for the metal have hit record highs.
- Capital inflows into ETFs are estimated at 700,000 ounces.
- Long positions in platinum remain relevant, with targets at $1,410 and $1,450.
Monthly Fundamental Forecast for Platinum
Even a dormant asset gets its turn in the spotlight. After a prolonged period of consolidation, platinum has surged like a rocket. In less than two weeks in June, its price gains have nearly matched those of gold since the start of the year. A structural supply deficit, investors shifting away from a stagnating XAUUSD, and shrinking above-ground inventories have helped bulls in XPTUSD easily hit their late-May long targets. And this could be just the beginning.
Heavy rainfall and other disruptions in South Africa — which accounts for the lion’s share of global platinum production—have significantly reduced output. According to WPIC, the physical market deficit is expected to reach about 1 million ounces in 2025. Meanwhile, spot prices currently trade well above futures, signaling tight supply conditions.
Reports that the White House might impose tariffs on precious metal imports triggered a global rush to ship platinum to the U.S., resulting in a surge in NYMEX inventories. Although XPTUSD wasn’t hit by the tariffs in the end, the metal hasn’t rushed back. As a result, lease rates for platinum bars stored in London and Zurich have soared to record highs.
Platinum Lease Rate Trends
Source: Bloomberg.
Limited supply is just one reason; strong demand is also pushing prices up. WPIC data show that 40% of platinum is used in auto catalytic converters, 26% in other industrial sectors, and another 26% in jewelry. The slower-than-expected shift to electric vehicles has supported XPTUSD. Sky-high gold prices have prompted investors and jewelers to look for cheaper alternatives, and they’re finding them among other precious metals.
Silver and Platinum Trends
Source: Financial Times.
Add to this the insatiable Chinese demand for platinum and ETF inflows of 70,000 ounces since the beginning of the year, and you’ve got an explosive mix that was bound to send XPTUSD prices soaring. And June got the job done.
Between 1970 and 2015, the gold-to-platinum ratio averaged around 1.05. Over the past decade, however, it has surged, hitting an all-time high of 3.59 in April. It has since dropped to 2.68, but XPTUSD still looks undervalued. Capital flows into platinum-focused funds are likely to grow, along with demand for platinum jewelry.
The metal may well serve as a cheaper safe-haven alternative to gold. While escalating conflict in the Middle East has caused some capital to shift from platinum to gold, a medium-term rally in XAUUSD would actually be good news for XPTUSD as well.
Platinum Trading Plan for the Month
The long targets set in late May were hit faster than expected. The current pullback creates a new opportunity to buy, with targets at $1,410 and $1,450 per ounce.
This forecast is based on the analysis of fundamental factors, including official statements from financial institutions and regulators, various geopolitical and economic developments, and statistical data. Historical market data are also considered.
Price chart of XPTUSD in real time mode
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