US Q2 Treasury borrowing estimate soars to $514 billion

• Sees $514 billion in Q2 borrowing
• Previously saw $123 billion
• Assumes end-of-quarter balance of $850 billion

The Treasury says ” The borrowing estimate is $391 billion higher than announced in February 2025, primarily due to the lower beginning-of-quarter cash balance and projected lower net cash flows, partially offset by lower Federal Reserve System Open Market Account (SOMA) redemptions ($60 billion)” but also adds “Excluding the lower than assumed beginning-of-quarter cash balance, the current quarter borrowing estimate is $53 billion lower than announced in February.”

I wouldn’t get too excited about the shift but it raises the stakes for Wednesday’s quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30 am ET ( the same time as Q1 GDP).