USD/JPY: Elliott wave analysis and forecast for 25.07.25 – 01.08.25
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above the level of 142.76 with a target of 154.80 – 158.85. A buy signal: the price holds above 142.76. Stop Loss: below 142.30, Take Profit: 154.80 – 158.85.
- Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below the level of 142.76 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 138.65 – 131.50. A sell signal: the level of 142.76 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 143.20, Take Profit: 138.65 – 131.50.
Main scenario
Consider long positions from corrections above the level of 142.76 with a target of 154.80 – 158.85.
Alternative scenario
Breakout and consolidation below the level of 142.76 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 138.65 – 131.50.
Analysis
On the weekly timeframe, the ascending wave of larger degree 3 has formed, and the downward correction appears to have completed as the fourth wave 4. On the daily timeframe, the fifth wave 5 is likely in progress, with the first wave of smaller degree (1) of 5 developing as its part. On the H4 chart, wave 3 of (1) appears to have started unfolding. Within this structure, wave i of 3 is formed, a local correction is completed as wave ii of 3, and wave iii of 3 has begun developing. If the presumption is correct, USD/JPY will continue to rise to 154.80 – 158.85. The level of 142.76 is critical in this scenario as a breakout will enable the pair to continue falling to the levels of 138.65 – 131.50.
This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.
Price chart of USDJPY in real time mode
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