What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?
The ranges of estimates are
important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the
expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another
important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts.
In fact, although we can have a range of
estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the
range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but
on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.
CPI Y/Y
- 2.8% (2%)
- 2.7% (47%) – consensus
- 2.6% (43%)
- 2.5% (6%)
- 2.4% (2%)
CPI M/M
- 0.4% (6%)
- 0.3% (65%) – consensus
- 0.2% (25%)
- 0.1% (4%)
Core CPI Y/Y
- 3.1% (2%)
- 3.0% (49%) – consensus
- 2.9% (45%)
- 2.8% (4%)
Core CPI M/M
- 0.4% (4%)
- 0.3% (66%) – consensus
- 0.2% (27%)
- 0.1% (3%)
As
always, the focus will be on the Core figures. We can notice that we have forecasts clustered around 2.9-3.0% for the Y/Y and 0.2-0.3% for the M/M measure. Therefore, the biggest moves will be triggered by deviations from these figures as there’s very low consensus of overshoots or undershoots.
ForexLive.com
is evolving into
investingLive.com, a new destination for intelligent market updates and smarter
decision-making for investors and traders alike.
