XAU/USD: Elliott wave analysis and forecast for 09.05.25 – 16.05.25
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above the level of 3189.35 with a target of 3800.00 – 4200.00. A buy signal: the price holds above 3189.35. Stop Loss: below 3150.00, Take Profit: 3800.00 – 4200.00.
Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below the level of 3189.35 will allow the XAU/USD pair to continue declining to the levels of 2574.07 – 2277.38. A sell signal: the level of 3189.35 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 3220, Take Profit: 2574.07 – 2277.38.
Main scenario
Consider long positions from corrections above the level of 3189.35 with a target of 3800.00 – 4200.00.
Alternative scenario
Breakout and consolidation below the level of 3189.35 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 2574.07 – 2277.38.
Analysis
The fifth ascending wave of larger degree 5 is presumably developing on the weekly chart, with wave (5) of 5 forming as its part. The third wave of smaller degree 3 of (5) appears to continue forming on the daily chart, with wave iii of 3 developing within. Wave (v) of iii is developing on the H4 chart, within which a local corrective wave iv of (v) is formed and wave v of (v) is unfolding. If the presumption is correct, XAU/USD will continue to rise to the levels of 3800.00 – 4200.00. The level of 3189.35 is critical in this scenario, as a breakout will enable the pair to continue falling to the levels of 2574.07 – 2277.38.
This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.
Price chart of XAUUSD in real time mode
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